Best Picture 2019 Prediction By the Numbers [Updated]

An Oscar statue is pictured at the press preview for the 91st Academy Awards Governors Ball, Friday, Feb. 15, 2019, in Los Angeles. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, Feb. 24. at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (Photo by Chris Pizzello/Invision/AP)

Tonight is the night! The 91st Academy Awards have been long awaited and we will finally learn all the winners very soon. We have broken down all the data to try to predict the winner of the biggest category of the night. The Best Picture race for 2019 is tight as no one film has become the front runner. We have looked at data from the box office, critic reviews, audience scores, and total awards buzz to try to puzzle out who could be the big winner!

See our full list of predictions here!

Best Picture

WINNER – GREEN BOOK

Best Picture NomineeWW Box Office (To-Date)Rotten Tomatoes Critics ScoreRotten Tomatoes Audience ScoreTotal Awards Wins & Nominations
Black Panther$1.35 Bil97%79%7 Oscar nominations, 79 wins, 212 nominations
BlacKkKlansman$90.6 Mil96%82%6 Oscar nominations, 33 wins, 165 nominations
Bohemian Rhapsody$860.9 Mil61%88%5 Oscar nominations, 23 wins, 60 nominations
The Favourite$83.2 Mil94%64%10 Oscar nominations, 138 wins, 252 nominations
Green Book$144 Mil80%94%5 Oscar nominations, 49 wins, 84 nominations
RomaN/A96%73%10 Oscar nominations, 170 wins, 161 nominations
A Star Is Born$424.4 Mil90%80%8 Oscar nominations, 63 wins, 211 nominations
Vice$63.7 Mil66%57%8 Oscar nominations, 28 wins, 107 nominations

PREDICTED WINNER – ROMA

Roma is a very strong contender in the race for Best Picture. By the numbers, we can see the audience score is pretty low as compared to the critics. This film was tapped early as a Oscar darling, but film fans didn’t seem as moved. Five films have higher audience scores, but only one has a higher critics score. Netflix doesn’t release viewership data, so the only other guide we have for this film is award wins and nominations. This film is the most nominated at the Academy Awards of all the Best Picture and has the most wins going into the ceremony.

This would be a historic win as no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture. Director, Alfonso Cuarón won a Best Director Oscar before and is no stranger to Academy Awards buzz. The film would also be the first streaming service film to win giving Netflix their first major Academy Award. The last streaming film to be nominated for Best Picture was Manchester by the Sea from Amazon. There may be some contention in the Academy ranks about whether or not to let a streaming service win for such a big award. Many also have issues that Netflix and Amazon have become major players in TV game, so maybe their films should only qualify as TV films. The Academy’s fear of change doesn’t seem to show in nominating the streaming giants, but we will see if Roma can pull off a Best Picture Win.

DARK HORSE – BLACK PANTHER

Black Panther has the biggest box office numbers of any nominee which isn’t surprising coming from the juggernaut known as the Marvel Cinematic Universe. This film was beloved by critics as it has the highest critics score, although it has the third lowest audience score. The hype around this film was generated from is sociocultural context as the first superhero to feature an all black cast (plus Andy Serkis). The film has been talked about for almost a year which also proves there is a good chance the buzz could carry it to a win. Further, this film has 212 total nominations across all awards, making it the second most nominated film after The Favourite. The cast of Black Panther won the Best Ensemble award at the SAG awards which tends to be a good indicator for who will win big at the Oscars as many of the same people are voting for both awards. With no acting nominations for the film, this may not be as helpful as it has in the past. This would also be a historical win as this would be the first MCU film to win Best Picture.

Category Rankings

Biggest Box Office: Black Panther

Critics Favorite: Black Panther

Fan Favorite: Green Book

Biggest Awards Winner: Roma

Most Academy Nominations: Roma

 

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Who do you want as the big winner? Share in the comments!

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Photo Credit: An Oscar statue is pictured at the press preview for the 91st Academy Awards Governors Ball, Friday, Feb. 15, 2019, in Los Angeles. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, Feb. 24. at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (Photo by Chris Pizzello/Invision/AP)

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