Oscars 2020: Best Picture by the Numbers

The 2020 Best Picture race is tight this year. There are a lot of amazing films that made the final list, some from studios, some from independents, some from streaming, and even one from across the globe. Although only the accountants know who won, there is some data that we can calculate to see if we can predict the winner. We have reviewed box office data, critics and fan scores as well as which films racked up awards along the way.

Best Picture 2020

Best Picture NomineeWW Box Office (To-Date)Rotten Tomatoes Critics ScoreRotten Tomatoes Audience ScoreTotal Awards Wins & Nominations
Ford v Ferrari$222.3 M92%98%4 Oscar nominations, 17 wins, 55 nominations
The Irishman$961,224 (streaming rating unknown)96%86%10 Oscar nominations, 53 wins, 262 nominations
Jojo Rabbit$65.6 M80%95%6 Oscar nominations, 23 wins, 118 nominations
Joker$1.1 B68%88%11 Oscar nominations, 45 wins, 118 nominations
Little Women$164.9 M95%92%6 Oscar nominations, 53 wins,148 nominations
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood$374 M85%70%10 Oscar nominations, 97 wins, 240 nominations
Marriage Story$323,382 (streaming rating unknown)95%84%6 Oscar nominations, 99 wins, 198 nominations
Parasite$163.8 M99%93%6 Oscar nominations, 156 wins, 157 nominations
1917$254.1 M89%88%10 Oscar nominations, 76 wins, 132 nominations

Predicted Winner – Parasite

Like last year, a foreign film nomination has a good chance of winning Best Picture. Last year, Roma was bested by Green Book. This year, Parasite, has everyone talking. The film is relatable, the cast is great and the director is having so much fun at award shows. Watching this film win would mean a lot to the industry as this would be a change of tides away from American-centric stories and move towards a more internationally inclusive awards race. This film has won more awards than any other film up to the Academy Awards. Further, this film shows the best of South Korean cinema. The style of many Korean filmmakers includes genre-bending, subverting common stories and crafting a uniquely Korean story while still be accessible to any audience. This film succeeds in this because Parasite‘s director, Bong Joon-ho helped craft modern Korean cinema. If this does win, give Joon-ho’s hit film, The Host a try, it’s kind of amazing.

Dark Horse – Ford V. Ferrari

Though this film has not been discussed much, the numbers don’t lie. This film is the most popular with fans, which last year’s winner Green Book, was as well. This film is not controversial, it’s a studio movie, it has movie stars and fast cars. This is the safest and most satisfying choice that will upset no one. Many voices have mentioned Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as a film deserving of Best Picture, but fans do not agree as this is the least popular with audiences, not that they get to vote. Biographical films do well at the Academy Awards, especially when they are about overachieving Americans. This is the antithesis of Parasite in this way as it is very focused on the Americana of classic racing. Although it is not on top of mind for most, being the most crowd-pleasing, this dark horse may just win the race after all.

Category Rankings

Biggest Box Office: Joker

Critics Favorite: Parasite

Fan Favorite: Ford v Ferrari

Biggest Awards Winner: Parasite

Most Academy Nominations: Joker

Lowest Critics Score: Jojo Rabbit

Lowest Fan Score: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


RELATED: How A Film Wins Best Picture


Who do you think will win Best Picture? Share in the comments!

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